I have said many times before that the U.S. stock market cannot fall sharply. As long as it falls, there will be mysterious power to pull it up, because the United States cannot afford to collapse.
Starting from the end of 2021, I thought that the United States could really make a difference and dare to make a hole in the lofty U.S. stocks. It is obvious that Chinese real estate has begun to burst into bubbles. What a great opportunity.
I don’t know if I am afraid or too arrogant. After a wave of crazy interest rate hikes, the bull market will restart in September 2022.
Look at the beautiful monthly K-line of Nasdaq. Every time you see the head structure coming out, there will be a mysterious force pulling it up. They say that the stock market is a barometer of the economy. Is the U.S. economy really that good? ?
Well, the United States has the omnipotent PS software, and there are many brainwashed economists around the world. Anyway, as long as it is the data officially reported by the United States, most people choose to believe it, even if it is full of errors and omissions. How much doubt there is.
When falsified data can also become a component of credibility, what other reliable conclusions can you expect economists to draw?
Today is the era of electrification. When we study economic data, we pay great attention to power generation. The GDP of the United States has skyrocketed. Even if it is assisted by CPI, why does power generation drop so much? The U.S. domestic manufacturing index, which has been placed high hopes by the Understanding King and the Sleeping King and has provided a lot of economic support, is also continuing to slump.
So what went wrong?
A WW blogger I follow talks about how great the US empire is all day long. The Federal Reserve can earn trillions of dollars from the world by raising interest rates and inverting long-term and short-term interest rates for a year.
The problem is that long-term liabilities must be matched with long-term assets. Are U.S. long-term Treasury bonds still selling well now? The buyers are all domestic funds, so cut yourself off?
All economic models in the world have a very big loophole, that is, mathematics is rational, but human behavior is based on the conflict between perceptual rationality and rationality. The result is that the model you put out looks good, but it is called a rabble. But they don’t play according to the routine.
If all economic activities in the world operated as arranged in economists’ textbooks, with the status of the United States as the global hegemon and the authority of the Federal Reserve as the world’s de facto central bank, the big Eastern countries would have been cut off until they were bald.
Zhang Jiadun and his like have become saints a long time ago. How come today, under the bearish view of global economics, China’s economy has persisted in not collapsing for decades, and has been severely slapped in the face.
So in fact, the Fed’s idea is beautiful, but the reality is cruel. The model is perfect, but the world is struggling with it. The expected harvest has not succeeded, and the game of playing hard to get with the US dollar supply has gone offline. The result is that the world The demand for U.S. dollars in trade is slowly being squeezed out, and huge amounts of U.S. dollars are quietly returning to the United States in various ways.
Funds are actually very anxious. The reason is very simple. The debt problem in the United States is not as simple as the national debt. Birmingham, the second largest city in the United Kingdom, went bankrupt this month. How many states in the United States can keep their local debt from collapsing?
The U.S. debt problem itself has been shrouded in mystery. Why is China’s local debt problem so serious? Aren’t all these tricks of shadow banks playing local debt learned from the United States?
Don’t forget, we can still have land and finance, but the United States doesn’t even have this. Land in the United States is privately owned. The most we can do is force people to pay property taxes, and you have to choose the place.
So how big a deficit have governments at all levels in the United States made? No one has made it clear yet. Regardless of how prosperous stock funds are, the real big guys on Wall Street are all doing debt, and they control the world’s money supply.
People who are heavily in debt are most afraid of a collapse in asset prices.
Before 2008, the idiot George W. Bush saw the terrible consequences of the collapse of Nasdaq during the Clinton era, so he used real estate to bind the asset valuation system. Unfortunately, the audience for real estate was many retail investors. Of course, retail investors were chasing after it. If prices rise, they will become more blind in their attempts to kill prices when prices fall.
So after holding it in for a long time, I had no choice but to let go of the subprime mortgage crisis.
It is this subprime mortgage crisis that gave Americans the illusion that the money printing machine is omnipotent and that the United States’ macro-control capabilities are invincible. Otherwise, how can we explain that no matter how crazy the Federal Reserve prints money, U.S. prices can still cause deflation? Woolen cloth?
Before the big inflation in the United States in 2021, the U.S. CPI figures seem to be particularly peaceful, but hidden under the water is the annual guarantee of the U.S. service industry CPI. Medical care and college tuition fees are all unspeakable secrets. One ambulance can It can make people go bankrupt, and working for twenty years and not paying off their student loans is the norm in life.
If this kind of thing happened in China, what do you think the public opinion would say?
However, the large-scale water release in 2008 brought global productivity to a higher level, especially the tyrannical Chinese manufacturing, which made everything that could be manufactured into surplus. As a result, the decline in commodity prices offset the soaring prices in the service industry, and the CPI was magically controlled. So much so that many people in the United States have been eating $1 fried chicken with tears in their eyes for a long time.
I said that the good operation of the money printing machine is not about how well the United States is doing, but about maintaining the backbone of this money printing and productivity-increasing system – the support of the US dollar from the major Eastern countries.
What the United States wants is digital wealth, the bubble prosperity of Wall Street.
What China wants is the strong development of the real economy, and the entire industrial chain can defeat all opponents except China.
During the honeymoon period between China and the United States, think tanks in Washington even shouted slogans of China and the United States.
But we all know that things can’t stay like this forever.
The world’s demand for productivity expansion is marginal. As long as Europe and the United States control the so-called crown jewel of industry, it means building a glass ceiling for China’s manufacturing industry.
So we see that Trump’s core demand for the trade war back then was actually to kill China’s 2025 plan and lock down China’s technological development. That’s why there were sanctions against ZTE and Huawei, as well as the increasingly long blackmail scandal of the Ministry of Commerce. List.
What is particularly interesting is that Trump probably did not realize that in the world economic system with the division of labor between China and the United States, it is much easier for China to break away from the financial control of the United States than it is for the United States to break away from China’s manufacturing control. It is very simple to use credit and currency. It’s all about credit. Without material support, how can you talk to me about a piece of credit? On the contrary, if you have hard core strength and one credit system collapses, it is not too difficult to build another one.
I often review the U.S. empire’s cunning operation of recreating credit currency after the collapse of the U.S. monetary system in the 1970s. It seems that it can be imitated infinitely, but don’t forget that by the 1980s, the U.S. manufacturing industry was still number one in the world. What about now? The United States can boast that it is made in the United States, but how many vests made in the United States are made in China?
I have seen some data. The United States is the world’s largest consumer of ammunition, and China is the largest producer. So can American arms dealers really ensure that the United States is self-sufficient in weapons? After a round of investigation, Biden did not dare to answer this question.
With the hard core strength of the manufacturing industry, after the collapse of the gold dollar system, it can empower the petrodollar, but what about the next wave?
Americans do not dare to try again. Now one of the anchors of the US dollar has become US assets. Among US dollar assets, the easiest place to dominate is the US stock market.
The reason why Nasdaq has been popular for so long is not because big American technology companies are really that awesome. Let’s not talk about anything. Let’s just look at how cowardly Apple is. At the Apple press conference tonight, Brother Cook didn’t even dare to be far ahead. He said that Huawei mobile phones can now make direct satellite calls, but you have worked hard to solve Apple’s signal problem. Apple, who was in a hurry and sought medical treatment, went to Qualcomm and hugged each other to keep warm.
Amazon Cloud can no longer grow. Amazon has grown into a very unsexy traditional retail company, so is the valuation still worthy of being so high?
Vietnam’s electric car company went to the United States to fool around and was able to increase its market value to more than 200 billion US dollars. Of course, it later came down, but think about it with your toes and compare the gap between BYD and Ya. Why?
ChatGPT, which was full of words and lies, led to a surge in the market. Koreans claimed that room temperature superconductivity could also cause individual stocks to rise sharply. In the end, there was no other way, and everyone went back to hyping Tesla.
Because now the only one who knows how to draw a pie is Musk. There is no way to speculate, we can only speculate. This is the current situation of US stocks.
Investment banks are collectively shouting too much, and Goldman Sachs and Morgan have worked so hard to issue a report. Have they changed the truth about the decline in the competitive advantage of American companies?
But after all, the U.S. stock market is a super market stock. It’s not that you can make a lot of money by going long, but what’s hidden behind the U.S. stock market is the excessive overestimation of U.S. assets. If all the water is squeezed out, the debt will not disappear. Wealth has been transferred to private pockets, and if the empty shell tricks are exposed, won’t there be a series of thunderstorms, and the United States will soon be completely insolvent?
Therefore, the U.S. stock market cannot fall. Even if it falls, it must be pulled up. Anyway, the index is monopolized by a few big stocks, and it is not that difficult to collectively take the market position.
Now that a large amount of money is flowing back to the United States, what impact will it have on U.S. GDP? Because the data is all falsified, I can’t say, but the Federal Reserve has begun to panic, and rumors have spread that it will suspend interest rate hikes in September.
Inflation is obviously on the rise again, and U.S. oil will soon break through 90 US dollars. Are you just ignoring the impact of inflation and pretending to be an ostrich? Is the strong dollar no longer maintained?
If interest rates are not raised to protect the U.S. dollar index, the only option is to deal harsh blows to Europe.
Not raising interest rates is to protect U.S. stocks. The Fed does not dare to take risks because it really has no confidence.
This wave of artificial bulls in the U.S. stock market will hang on no matter how difficult it is. If one day it cannot hang on, that will be when the U.S. financial empire completely collapses.